In each of the visuals below, I have created 50 mi radius buffers around all UN bases that were withdrawn in South Darfur in 2017, 2018, and 2019. After 2019, no more bases were withdrawn from South Darfur. As with West Darfur in Visual 7, I have also calculated the total attacks on civilians and fatalities from such attacks inside these buffers and plotted them in a heat map table further below for analysis.


Whereas in 2016 (the year before the Edd El Fursan and Tulus UN bases were closed) there were 47 attacks on civilians and 58 fatalities within 50 mi of these bases, in 2017 there were 25 attacks on civilians (a 47% decrease) and 31 fatalities (an 87% decrease).

Looking at the 2017 vs. 2018 maps below, whereas in 2017 (the year before the Buram and Graida UN compounds were closed) there were 32 attacks on civilians and 28 fatalities within a 50 mi radius of these bases, in 2018 there were 27 attacks and 28 fatalities - roughly the same level of violence. A caveat should be noted: it appears from the map that although troops were withdrawn from the Buram and Graida UN bases in 2018, there were actually more UN troops within the buffer in 2018 than in 2017. This is likely a result of transfering troops from the closed bases to other nearby bases that were still active.

Further, while there were 21 attacks on civilians and 22 fatalities in 2018 within 50 mi radius of the Nyala UN compound before it was shut down, in 2019 there were only 10 attacks on civilians (a 110% decrease) and 6 fatalities (a 267% decrease).

We can see that in South Darfur these figures do not lend support to the theory that the withdrawal of UN compounds led to increasing patterns of violence against civilians in the immediate term. However, a similar trend as was seen in Visual 7 in West Darfur repeats itself in South Darfur with escalating violence years later and higher than usual fatality per attack rates. Looking at the table below, when attacks on civilians and fatalities are calculated in future years one can see that although violence was already prevalent in the area inside these buffers between the years 2016 and 2018, in the years 2020 and 2021 there was a noticeable increase in civilian killings beyond usual levels. Further, the relatively high levels of violence within all 3 buffers between the years 2016 and 2018 arguably should have raised reservations among UN officials about withdrawing at the pace they did.


In 2020, within 50 mi of the bases that were closed in 2017, there were just 12 attacks on civilians but there were 57 fatalities (an 84% increase compared to 2017), which equates to 4.75 fatalities per attack. Also in 2020, within 50 mi of the bases closed in 2018, there were only 16 attacks but there were 78 fatalities (a 179% increase compared to 2018), which equates to 4.88 fatalities per attack. Additionally, within 50 mi of the UN compound that closed in 2019, while there were just 10 attacks in 2020, but there were 32 fatalities (a 417% increase compared to 2019), which equates to 3.10 fatalities per attack. In 2021 in South Darfur, locations surrounding the UN base withdrawals in 2017 and 2018 had a slight reduction in fatalities per attack, with 1.83 fatalities per attack and 1.73 fatalities per attack, respectively - still higher than usual levels. This patterns of higher than normal fatality per attack ratios is similar to the experience of West Darfur in 2019 and 2021.


However, just as with the spikes in West Darfur violence in 2019 and 2021 following UN base withdrawals, the power vacuum from years of UN base withdrawals is likely only one of several factors which led to the increase in violence in South Darfur. Such factors which have been cited include intercommunal violence in retaliation for tribal cattle raiding and land disputes between displaced land owners and those occupying their land.


Area around 2017 Closed Bases
Area around 2018 Closed Bases
Area around 2019 Closed Bases
Attacks Fatalities Attacks Fatalities Attacks Fatalities
2016 47 58 47 55 48 27
2017 25 31 32 28 35 22
2018 32 37 27 28 21 22
2019 11 16 13 16 10 6
2020 12 57 16 78 10 31
2021 18 33 26 45 18 17