In creating a before vs. after UN base withdrawal comparison of
violence against civilians, since Geo-PKO data on UNAMID troop numbers
only extends to 2020, I will compare Darfur’s 2016 and 2020 maps. It is
important though to keep in mind from Visual 2 that civilian killings
were higher in Darfur as a whole in 2021 than 2020, and from Visual 3
that a significant rise in civilian killings occurred in West Darfur in
2021 compared to 2020.
In the maps below, between 2016 and 2020 the pattern of civilian
attacks in Darfur shifted notably. In 2016, the deadliest attacks were
highly concentrated at the intersection of Central, South, and North
Darfur. However, by 2020 there were more high-fatality attacks in South
Darfur, while West Darfur saw a significant rise in generally
lower-fatality attacks coinciding with the withdrawal of UN bases and
peacekeepers.
Both maps reveal a consistent pattern: administrative districts with
the most civilian attacks had UN bases averaging a yearly troop strength
of 200 or fewer.
From Visual 3, recall that in 2016 the 3 states with the most
civilian killings were Central Darfur (253), South Darfur (139), and
North Darfur (114), totaling 506, with West Darfur only having 36. Yet,
by 2020, the 3 states with the most killings were South Darfur (95),
Central Darfur (35), and West Darfur (31), amounting to 161 fatalities
between them - a significant overall decrease from 2016. However, in
2021 West Darfur’s civilian killings rose to 155, the highest for any
region and a 400% increase from the previous year.
We can see from the maps above that although fatalities in Central
and South Darfur decreased from 2016 to 2020, West Darfur maintained
similar fatalities in both years but experienced a sharp increase in
2021, coinciding with UNAMID’s complete closure.
Also, recall that Visual 5’s 2016 heat maps show a high
concentration of civilian attacks at the junction of Central, South, and
North Darfur, regardless of fatality count. By 2020, the highest density
of attacks shifted to north-eastern Central Darfur, with a moderate
increase in West Darfur.
Visual 5’s 2021 Darfur heat map indicated a slight increase in the
concentration of civilian attacks in West Darfur compared to 2020. This
initially seems unexpected given Visual 3’s data showing West Darfur had
the highest number of civilian killings of any state in 2021. However,
this likely reflects a high fatality rate per attack, despite a less
dense concentration of incidents. Similarly, the 2020 heatmap shows a
mild concentration of attacks in South Darfur, contrasting with this
visual’s indication that the most fatal attacks occurred there.
We have until now seen particularly interesting trends in West
Darfur and South Darfur; in the next 2 visuals, I will visually compare
violence in these 2 states within a 50 mi radius of bases closed from
2017-2019. Specifically, I will show violence levels the year before
vs. the year of base withdrawals. Additionally, I will quantitatively
measure levels of violence against civilians up until 2021 within these
50 mi radius buffers to see whether it increased or decreased following
base withdrawals.
The analysis so far lends itself to the view that it is plausible
the withdrawal of UN bases in these 2 regions may have been premature
and allowed violence to spread.